2026 Midterm Elections: Early Polls Show Competitive Races Ahead

With the November 2026 midterm elections nine months away, early polling data suggests a highly competitive cycle that could reshape the political landscape in Washington.

The Current Landscape

Senate: Republicans hold a 52-48 majority House: Republicans hold a 221-214 majority

Historical patterns suggest the president’s party typically loses seats in midterm elections, but early indicators point to a more nuanced picture.

Key Senate Races

Several battleground states will determine control:

State	Incumbent	Rating
Ohio	R - Open seat	Toss-up
Pennsylvania	D - Bob Casey	Lean D
Wisconsin	R - Ron Johnson	Lean R
Arizona	D - Ruben Gallego	Toss-up
Michigan	D - Open seat	Toss-up

The Issues

Early polling shows voters focused on:

Economy/Inflation - 34% say it’s their top issue
Immigration - 22%
Healthcare - 15%
Democracy/Governance - 12%
Climate - 8%

Money Race

Both parties are raising record sums:

Republican committees: $320 million on hand
Democratic committees: $290 million on hand
Outside groups: Expected to spend $2+ billion

Turnout Predictions

Midterm turnout has historically lagged presidential years, but recent cycles have seen increased engagement:

2014: 36.7%
2018: 50.3%
2022: 46.8%

Strategists on both sides are investing heavily in voter mobilization.

Key Dates

March 1: Texas primary (first major test)
May 21: Pennsylvania, Georgia primaries
August 6: Last major primary dates
November 3: General election

Expert Analysis

“This is shaping up to be one of the most consequential midterm elections in modern history,” said Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics. “The margins are so tight that a handful of races could determine the direction of policy for years to come.”

Voters on both sides appear highly motivated, setting the stage for an intense campaign season ahead.